Politics and Elections
Markets based on objectively verifiable political events, elections, appointments and public-policy outcomes, where legally and ethically permissible.
First of its kind
A global regulatory framework for prediction markets.
Purpose-built licensing for the next generation of global event markets. TGMRC provides a first-of-its-kind integrated sovereign licensing framework designed specifically for international prediction-market operators.
Developed within the Guinea-Bissau regulatory framework, the licence gives prediction-market businesses a dedicated regulatory pathway covering licensing, market integrity, consumer protection, compliance, technology oversight and ongoing regulatory supervision.
Clear regulation. International capability. Built for prediction markets.
Regulation designed for prediction markets
Regulated according to how prediction markets actually operate.
Prediction markets allow participants to take positions on the probability of future real-world events. They are increasingly used to aggregate information and create real-time, market-based probabilities across politics, economics, sport, financial markets, technology, entertainment and global events.
Yet their regulatory position remains complex. Depending on jurisdiction and product structure, a prediction market can potentially be characterised as any of the following:
- Betting
- An exchange
- An event-contract platform
- A financial product
- A derivative
- A digital-asset application
- An information market
- Or a combination of several of these
Most existing regulatory regimes were not designed for this technology. Rather than requiring innovative platforms to operate within legislation written for traditional sportsbooks, casinos or financial exchanges, this framework recognises prediction markets as a distinct and rapidly evolving digital sector.
A first-of-its-kind integrated licensing model
One regulatory ecosystem, rather than a licence and a list of gaps.
- Prediction-market licensing
- Corporate establishment
- Regulatory approval
- Market-integrity requirements
- AML and KYC controls
- Technology assessment
- Cybersecurity standards
- Consumer protection
- Responsible market creation
- Banking and payment introductions
- Digital-asset compliance
- Ongoing regulatory supervision
- Regulatory reporting
The objective is to give prediction-market companies a regulatory home capable of supporting innovation while maintaining credible regulatory standards.
What can be licensed
A broad range of event-driven markets, subject to regulatory approval.
Economics
Markets relating to inflation, interest rates, GDP, employment, economic indicators and other macroeconomic events.
Financial and Monetary Events
Markets based upon specified financial, monetary or economic outcomes, subject to additional assessment where products could fall within financial-services regulation in other jurisdictions.
Sport
Event markets based on sporting outcomes and objectively measurable sporting events.
Technology
Markets involving product launches, technological milestones, artificial intelligence, space exploration and other measurable technology developments.
Business
Markets relating to publicly verifiable corporate and commercial events.
Digital Assets
Markets based upon objectively measurable cryptocurrency, blockchain and digital-asset events, subject to applicable regulatory controls.
Entertainment and Popular Culture
Markets covering awards, media, television, film, music and other verifiable entertainment outcomes.
Climate and Environment
Markets linked to measurable environmental, meteorological and climate-related events.
Global Events
Markets relating to significant objectively verifiable international developments.
Other Event Markets
New market categories may be considered where the underlying event has a clear, transparent and independently verifiable outcome.
Every operator and proposed market model remains subject to regulatory assessment and approval.
Multiple operating models
Prediction markets are evolving quickly. The framework does not assume one shape.
Exchange-Based Markets
Platforms allowing participants to take opposing positions while the operator provides the marketplace, technology and settlement infrastructure.
Operator-Funded Markets
Platforms where the operator establishes markets and assumes responsibility for settlement against participants.
Order-Book Markets
Trading environments where participants buy and sell positions through an electronic order book with prices determined by market activity.
Automated Market Makers
Platforms using algorithmic liquidity mechanisms to establish pricing and facilitate transactions.
Event Contracts
Binary or multiple-outcome contracts settled according to the occurrence of a clearly defined future event.
Digital-Asset Settlement
Where approved, operators may incorporate cryptocurrency, stablecoins or other digital-asset infrastructure into payment or settlement systems, subject to appropriate AML, wallet-monitoring, custody and financial-crime controls.
Market integrity by design
The value of a prediction market depends on confidence in the market itself.
Market surveillance
Operators should maintain monitoring capable of identifying abnormal trading activity, coordinated behaviour and suspicious market patterns.
Insider information
Operators must establish procedures for detecting and managing trading potentially based on confidential, privileged or unlawfully obtained information. Where appropriate, specific individuals or classes of individuals may be restricted from participating in certain markets.
Auditability
Trading activity, market creation and settlement decisions should generate audit trails capable of regulatory review.
Manipulation prevention
- Wash trading
- Artificial volume
- Coordinated manipulation
- Collusive trading
- Price manipulation
- Multiple-account abuse
- Market interference
Conflicts of interest
- Employees
- Directors
- Market makers
- Liquidity providers
- Related parties
- Technology providers
- Other persons capable of influencing a market
Responsible market creation
Not every real-world event should become a tradable market.
Markets may be prohibited, restricted or subject to additional regulatory review where they involve unacceptable legal, ethical, security or public-interest concerns. The objective is to enable responsible innovation without creating incentives for harmful behaviour.
This can include markets associated with
- Death or serious physical harm
- Assassination
- Terrorism
- Criminal activity
- Sensitive military operations
- National-security matters
- Events that could incentivise harmful behaviour
- Events capable of being materially influenced by a participant
- Unlawfully obtained confidential information
- Vulnerable individuals
- Markets considered contrary to law or public policy
Clear and objective market resolution
Participants should know exactly how a market will resolve before they participate.
Disclosed before a market opens
- The precise event being predicted
- The available outcomes
- When trading begins
- When trading closes
- The authoritative source used to determine the result
- The settlement methodology
- What happens if an event is postponed
- What happens if an event is cancelled
- How ambiguous outcomes are handled
- How disputes are resolved
Approved settlement sources may include
- Official government information
- Election authorities
- Regulatory authorities
- Recognised data providers
- Sporting governing bodies
- Published economic data
- Established information services
- Approved oracle infrastructure
AML, KYC and financial crime
Controls proportionate to the business model.
- Customer identity verification
- Age verification
- Sanctions screening
- Politically Exposed Person screening
- Customer risk assessment
- Source-of-funds checks
- Source-of-wealth checks where appropriate
- Transaction monitoring
- Suspicious activity identification
- Enhanced due diligence
- Geographic controls
- Jurisdictional restrictions
- Record keeping
- Regulatory reporting
Where cryptocurrency or digital assets are used, additional controls may include
- Blockchain analytics
- Wallet screening
- Transaction tracing
- Risk-scoring
- Wallet attribution
- Sanctions monitoring
- Source-of-funds analysis
The same financial-integrity standards we apply across virtual asset regulation and supervisory operations.
Technology and cybersecurity
Licensed platforms must stay secure, transparent, auditable and resilient.
Prediction-market platforms are technology-driven businesses, so the framework addresses not only the operator but the systems through which markets are created, traded and settled. Applicants may be required to demonstrate appropriate controls across:
- Platform architecture
- Cybersecurity
- Information security
- Encryption
- Customer-data protection
- Access controls
- Transaction records
- Market records
- Audit logs
- Wallet security
- Payment infrastructure
- Settlement systems
- Business continuity
- Disaster recovery
- Third-party technology providers
- Cloud infrastructure
- System resilience
Consumer protection
Innovation does not remove the need for customer protection.
Customers should be able to understand both the opportunity and the risk before participating.
- Clear risk warnings
- Transparent pricing
- Transparent fees
- Fair terms and conditions
- Customer-fund safeguards
- Complaint procedures
- Dispute-resolution mechanisms
- Account-security measures
- Responsible participation controls
- Self-exclusion facilities where applicable
- Protection of vulnerable customers
- Advertising and marketing standards
International market access
A Guinea-Bissau licence establishes the operator's regulatory status within the licensing jurisdiction. It does not automatically grant permission to offer services in every country worldwide. Prediction-market regulation differs significantly between jurisdictions, and licensed operators remain responsible for determining whether their products may lawfully be offered in individual territories.
Operators are expected to maintain
- Geographic restrictions
- IP controls
- Customer-location verification
- Restricted-country policies
- Product restrictions
- Local legal assessments
Banking, payments and digital assets
As part of the wider licensing ecosystem, TGMRC can facilitate introductions to suitable providers.
- Banking providers
- Payment service providers
- Merchant-service providers
- E-wallet providers
- Cryptocurrency exchanges
- Digital-asset service providers
- Settlement providers
All financial institutions and service providers retain their own independent onboarding, compliance and risk-acceptance requirements. No banking or payment approval is guaranteed by the granting of a regulatory licence.
A complete licensing pathway
From initial application through to licensed operation.
- 01
Initial Assessment
TGMRC reviews the proposed business model, ownership structure, technology, target markets and intended product categories.
- 02
Corporate Establishment
Where required, TGMRC coordinates establishment of the appropriate local corporate structure.
- 03
Application Preparation
The operator's regulatory application and supporting documentation are prepared for submission.
- Corporate information
- Ownership information
- Business plan
- Financial information
- Compliance policies
- AML framework
- KYC procedures
- Technology documentation
- Market rules
- Settlement procedures
- Consumer-protection policies
- 04
Regulatory Due Diligence
Directors, shareholders, beneficial owners and other relevant individuals undergo appropriate regulatory assessment.
- 05
Technology and Compliance Review
The platform's systems, controls and operating procedures are reviewed against applicable regulatory requirements.
- 06
Regulatory Approval
Following successful completion of the application and assessment process, the relevant authority determines whether the licence should be issued.
- 07
Go Live
TGMRC supports the operator through the transition from regulatory approval to live operations.
- 08
Ongoing Compliance
Licensing is not a one-time exercise. Operators remain subject to ongoing regulatory obligations including reporting, compliance monitoring, market-integrity controls and regulatory supervision.
Built for global operators
Established businesses and new market entrants alike.
- Existing prediction-market operators
- Event-contract platforms
- Betting exchanges
- Fintech companies
- Digital-asset businesses
- Trading technology companies
- Market-data businesses
- Web3 platforms
- Institutional technology providers
- New prediction-market ventures
More than a licence
Ongoing support through Regulation as a Service.
- Regulatory compliance
- AML and KYC
- Corporate administration
- Regulatory reporting
- Technology compliance
- Market-integrity procedures
- Risk management
- Banking introductions
- Payment introductions
- Digital-asset compliance
- Policy development
- Regulatory liaison
This lets operators focus on developing their platform while maintaining the infrastructure required to operate within a regulated environment. See the platform behind it.
Frequently asked
Questions prediction-market operators ask first.
Comparing regulatory routes? See how jurisdictions differ
What is a prediction market licence?
It is a regulatory authorisation designed specifically for operators of event-driven markets, where participants take positions on the probability of future real-world outcomes. TGMRC's prediction-market licence sits within the Guinea-Bissau regulatory framework and covers licensing, market integrity, consumer protection, compliance, technology oversight and ongoing regulatory supervision. It exists because most regulatory regimes were written for sportsbooks, casinos or financial exchanges rather than for prediction markets as a distinct sector.
What types of prediction market can be licensed?
The framework accommodates a broad range of event-driven markets subject to regulatory approval, including politics and elections, economics, financial and monetary events, sport, technology, business, digital assets, entertainment, climate and environment, and other global events. New categories may be considered where the underlying event has a clear, transparent and independently verifiable outcome. Every operator and proposed market model remains subject to regulatory assessment and approval.
Which operating models does the framework support?
Exchange-based markets, operator-funded markets, order-book markets, automated market makers and event contracts are all accommodated, rather than requiring every platform to fit a single model. Where approved, operators may also incorporate cryptocurrency, stablecoins or other digital-asset infrastructure into payment or settlement systems, subject to appropriate AML, wallet-monitoring, custody and financial-crime controls.
Are there markets that cannot be created?
Yes. Markets may be prohibited, restricted or subject to additional regulatory review where they involve unacceptable legal, ethical, security or public-interest concerns. That includes markets associated with death or serious physical harm, assassination, terrorism, criminal activity, sensitive military operations, national-security matters, events capable of being materially influenced by a participant, and markets considered contrary to law or public policy.
Does a Guinea-Bissau prediction market licence give worldwide market access?
No. The licence establishes the operator's regulatory status within the licensing jurisdiction. It does not automatically grant permission to offer services in every country. Prediction-market regulation differs significantly between jurisdictions, and licensed operators remain responsible for determining whether their products may lawfully be offered in individual territories, maintaining geographic restrictions, IP controls, customer-location verification and restricted-country policies.
How does a prediction market resolve and settle?
Every market must have a clearly defined outcome, disclosed before the market opens. Participants should understand the precise event, the available outcomes, when trading opens and closes, the authoritative source used to determine the result, the settlement methodology, what happens if an event is postponed or cancelled, how ambiguous outcomes are handled and how disputes are resolved. Settlement should rely on independent, objectively verifiable sources wherever possible.
Regulation built for what comes next
Rather than adapting yesterday's rules to tomorrow's products, the framework creates a dedicated regulatory pathway for responsible prediction-market operators.
Whether you are an established prediction-market operator, developing a new event-contract platform or exploring the next generation of information markets, TGMRC can provide a clear pathway to regulated operation.
Licensing outcomes, permitted market categories and eligibility are determined by the relevant authority under the Guinea-Bissau regulatory framework. Nothing on this page is legal, financial or regulatory advice, and no licensing outcome is guaranteed. Applicants should take independent advice.